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Lower mortgage rates won’t do much for Toronto homebuyers, says economist. Here’s why

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Photo: Dennis Jarvis/Flickr

Those in the market for a Toronto home shouldn’t get too excited about the prospect of lower mortgage rates, says one economist.

This week in a widely reported move RBC revealed it was slashing its five-year mortgage rate, and other lenders are expected to do the same. But Stephen Brown, a senior economist with Capital Economics, suggests it won’t do a whole lot to boost activity in Toronto’s housing market.

“While such cuts may well help markets like Montreal where sales remain pretty strong, it’s hard to see them doing much for Toronto or Vancouver,” he writes in a Canada Economics Weekly report.

“In both cities, speculation has played a far larger role in driving up both sales and prices in recent years. For owner-occupiers to replace such buyers, either mortgage rates or prices will need to fall much further,” Brown continues.

Although Toronto sales fell by 16.1 percent in 2018, according to the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB), Brown is not sure substantial price drops are a foregone conclusion. While sales took a double-digit dip, the average price of a home in the GTA remained relatively stable at $787,300, representing a decline of 4.3 percent.

“Given high transaction costs, absent a severe economic downturn or a sharper rise in interest rates than we envisage, investors may simply decide to hold on to their assets,” Brown states.

Many experts predict the Bank of Canada will continue to gradually increase interest rates this year. But Capital Economics has repeatedly predicted the central bank will need to reverse at least one of the five hikes it has announced since July 2017, in part because of the struggles of the country’s oil industry.

While Capital Economics remains an outlier, some observers are now entertaining the possibility that the central bank will sit on the sidelines for 2019.

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Covid-19 altering Canadians’ housing needs: RBC

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Amid a pandemic-driven shift in demand as well as a surge in new listings, the Canadian housing market remained strong in August, RBC Economics reports.

Citing preliminary data from local real estate boards, RBC said that markets in many areas of the country remained “red hot” in August.

“But the bigger story might be that Covid-19 is now prompting more people to sell,” the report said, noting that new listings surged in urban centres such as Toronto, Ottawa and Vancouver.

“We think this in part reflects the pandemic altering the housing needs of many current owners — who are opting to move, something they might not have considered just a few months ago,” it said.

RBC noted that the Toronto market saw new listings jump 57% year over year in August, powering a 40% increase in home sales.

Sales were up more than 20% from July’s near-record levels, it said.

“Clearly, [that] market has fired on all cylinders this summer, making up for the major disruption caused by Covid-19 in the spring,” RBC said.

The primary drivers of sales activity and higher prices were low-rise homes, including single-detached homes, RBC reported.

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RBC’s customer base makes it a favourite of cyber attacks – security experts

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Royal Bank of Canada is among the most targeted institutions by cyber attacks due to its broad customer base, according to an analysis by Palo Alto Networks.

From December 2019 up to present, cybercriminals have been establishing malicious pages disguised as websites by major companies to conduct phishing attempts and other similarly invasive attacks.

RBC ranked third in the most spoofed domains list, more than streaming giant Netflix and professional networking portal LinkedIn. PayPal and Apple ranked first and second, respectively.

“When you look at the broad customer base that RBC has, it makes sense, especially when you compare it to some of the other big names,” said Jen Miller-Osborn, deputy director of threat research at Palo Alto Networks. “These attackers are going after [domains] where they can make the most money, so they’re focusing on these organizations that have really broad customer bases because that really ups the number of potential victims.”

In an interview with BNN Bloomberg, Miller-Osborn outlined what consumers should be looking out for to filter our fraudulent emails.

“Typically, the ones that are going to be scam-related are trying to invoke some sort of emotional response,” Miller-Osborn said. “So they might say something like ‘Someone tried to change your password, click here to say whether or not that was you,’ or ‘Click here to confirm this charge on your statement,’ or ‘We’ve locked your account for strange activity.’ Essentially, things that will make people anxious and will make them want to click first, and not take a step back and pause to think, ‘Is that really the kind of email that my bank would usually send?’”

Other red flags include misspellings and basic grammar errors in the message, especially the sender line.

“Attackers try to closely mimic domain names, so you might see the number zero substituted for ‘o’, or a one substituted for the letter ‘l’. Little thing like an extra ‘s’ or ‘c’ in the name. These things, people tend to glance over very quickly and not notice.”

Miller-Osborn said that these measures should be done in concert with the most effective step in deflecting a spoofing attempt: Calling the bank and asking them if the email that they supposedly sent was legitimate.

 

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Queen confirms new home at Windsor Castle with Buckingham Palace for ‘selected events’

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The Queen will be returning to Windsor Castle in a matter of weeks, with Buckingham Palace only used for ‘select events’.

Her Majesty and her husband Duke of Edinburgh will first spend time privately at Sandringham when they leave Balmoral next week, Buckingham Palace confirmed.

She had been spending summer at her retreat in Aberdeenshire amid speculation that she would not return to the capital amid the coronavirus pandemic.

A spokesperson said: “The Queen and The Duke of Edinburgh will depart Balmoral Castle during the week commencing September 14 to spend time privately on the Sandringham Estate.

“Subject to the finalisation of the autumn programme, Her Majesty’s intention is to return to Windsor Castle in October and to resume the use of Buckingham Palace for selected audiences and engagements.

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