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The Bank of Canada is wrong. Canadian bankruptcies aren’t on the rise, says Scotiabank

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Photo: James Bombales

An executive with one of the biggest Canadian banks is questioning the judgement of the Bank of Canada’s governor over his comments about bankruptcies in the country.

When Stephen Poloz announced this week that the central bank was maintaining the overnight rate at 1.75 percent, signalling mortgage rates should remain consistent for the time being, he noted bankruptcies are on the rise.

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But that’s not the case, says Derek Holt, vice president of Scotiabank Economics, and it’s one of the things that differentiates our banking system from America’s.

“I don’t see consumer bankruptcies the same way as the Governor and was somewhat surprised by how the Governor is viewing bankruptcies given the importance of tracking how they are responding to higher rates and other developments,” writes Holt in a Scotia Flash report.

“Poloz says consumer bankruptcies have gone up. They have not,” he adds bluntly.







Recently, the Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy reported that consumer insolvencies were up 5.2 per cent in November on a year-over-year basis.

However, this measure is based on more than bankruptcies. It also includes proposals for restructuring debt (basically, a proposal for a repayment plan that may include asking a creditor for more time to pay off debt, or offering to pay a certain percentage of the total owed).

“Total insolvencies have risen because proposals have gone up, and they are a very different animal compared to going bankrupt,” Holt explains. “Bankruptcies are still toward record lows.”







In a separate note, Holt suggests the increase in proposals didn’t come out of nowhere. The impacts of rising interest rates and mortgage stress testing introduced a year ago are being felt.

“I would also contend that what we are seeing here is a reflection of one of the great relative strengths of the Canadian banking system versus, say, the US system,” writes Holt.

“Proposals are worked out through a willingness to restructure payments and debt without necessarily forcing the client into bankruptcy and seizing uncertain net asset values minus related costs.”

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14 gender neutral nurseries you’ll coo over

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Classic nursery designs that will grow with your child.

1. This bright and cheerful space with a handmade mobile.







Photo: almostmakesperfect/Instagram

2. This desert-inspired nursery featuring power-clashing patterns.







Photo: sarahsweeneyco/Instagram

3. This green and gold color scheme with a few DIY touches.







Photo: headygrimm/Instagram

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4. This subtly animal-themed nursery with pops of yellow.







Photo: jillian.harris/Instagram

5. This crib setup with a canopy in the corner and a faux-taxidermy llama head to boot.







Photo: jacksgot21/Instagram

6. This farmhouse-style twin nursery wrapped in shiplap.







Photo: houseon77th/Instagram

7. This vintage-meets-modern space that’s brimming with cozy texture.







Photo: carey_bears/Instagram

8. This sweet sanctuary complete with applied box moulding.







Photo: britt_horton/Instagram

9. This dark and moody nursery for a little guy with a lot of books.







Photo: havenbythebae/Instagram

10. This color happy space with a wallpaper mural inspired by The Great Wave.







Photo: lazymoms/Instagram

11. This room with a peachy keen paint job and boho decor accents.







Photo: mybreezyroom/Instagram

12. This eclectic space that boasts trendy indigo-dyed curtains.







Photo: _emilybolt/Instagram

13. This maximalist’s dream featuring funky banana-print wallpaper.







Photo: studiomunroe/Instagram

14. And finally, this Scandi-style nursery with clean lines and organic elements.







Photo: carlyamcdonagh/Instagram

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Lower mortgage rates won’t do much for Toronto homebuyers, says economist. Here’s why

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Photo: Dennis Jarvis/Flickr

Those in the market for a Toronto home shouldn’t get too excited about the prospect of lower mortgage rates, says one economist.

This week in a widely reported move RBC revealed it was slashing its five-year mortgage rate, and other lenders are expected to do the same. But Stephen Brown, a senior economist with Capital Economics, suggests it won’t do a whole lot to boost activity in Toronto’s housing market.

“While such cuts may well help markets like Montreal where sales remain pretty strong, it’s hard to see them doing much for Toronto or Vancouver,” he writes in a Canada Economics Weekly report.

“In both cities, speculation has played a far larger role in driving up both sales and prices in recent years. For owner-occupiers to replace such buyers, either mortgage rates or prices will need to fall much further,” Brown continues.

Although Toronto sales fell by 16.1 percent in 2018, according to the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB), Brown is not sure substantial price drops are a foregone conclusion. While sales took a double-digit dip, the average price of a home in the GTA remained relatively stable at $787,300, representing a decline of 4.3 percent.

“Given high transaction costs, absent a severe economic downturn or a sharper rise in interest rates than we envisage, investors may simply decide to hold on to their assets,” Brown states.

Many experts predict the Bank of Canada will continue to gradually increase interest rates this year. But Capital Economics has repeatedly predicted the central bank will need to reverse at least one of the five hikes it has announced since July 2017, in part because of the struggles of the country’s oil industry.

While Capital Economics remains an outlier, some observers are now entertaining the possibility that the central bank will sit on the sidelines for 2019.

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How this coastal-chic Los Angeles home blended high- and low-end decor

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Photo: Amy Bartlam

When designer Genna Margolis of Shapeside was approached by her clients to customize their 6,000-square-foot new-build in Los Angeles’ upscale Brentwood neighborhood, she was immediately struck by the sheer size of the project. “This house is huge and each room is extremely large,” explains Margolis. “One of the biggest challenges was just making sure everything fit to scale.”

The family of five was conscious about spending where it mattered, and saving where they could get away with it. It takes a lot of furniture to fill up a home of this size, and Margolis had to be strategic. “The key to achieving a high-low mix is spending more on the big pieces that take up the majority of the space, and spending less on the trendy accent pieces,” notes Margolis.

The Cape Cod-style residence had a traditional feel (or “stuffy” as Margolis calls it), which clashed with her clients’ contemporary taste. “A lot of the furniture you find in retail stores that’s young and cool is made to fit tiny apartments,” says Margolis. It took quite a bit of trial and error to source pieces that were not only substantial, but stylish.

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Photo: Amy Bartlam

The minimalist design of the entryway came at the request of the homeowners. “This family has three young kids, so they didn’t want to have a lot of stuff in the way when they walk through the door,” says Margolis. She paired a concrete and brass console table from West Elm with a custom-made bench to house shoes and bags. The pegs above complement the leather strap detail on the bench, and allow scarves to be looped through.

Margolis chose a leafy indoor tree to occupy an empty corner. “The more furniture there is, the more structured a plant I will choose. If there’s less furniture, I’ll choose something wider and looser.”







Photo: Amy Bartlam

The open-concept living space, which is defined by two fireplaces on either end, presented yet another design challenge. Ultimately, Margolis decided on two separate seating areas — one for everyday relaxation and another for more formal entertaining. “Since the space is so big and open, I decided to custom-make a really large coffee table that took up a lot of space,” she explains. “The coffee table is almost five feet in diameter and we have an 11-foot long sectional in a dark grey linen.”







Photo: Amy Bartlam

The homeowners did not want the grand piano to be the sole focal point of the space — it was an inherited piece, but they feared it would come across as overly formal. “To make it feel more relaxed, I knew I needed to add a chair, but it couldn’t be just any chair,” says Margolis. “This one is upholstered in a blush fabric and has really dainty legs. I wanted it to be modern, but still inviting and chill.” She also flanked the fireplace with two fiddle leaf figs. “Adding organic factors helped to loosen it up. The piano is there, but it feels like it’s more in the background.”







Photo: Amy Bartlam

The dining room was a lesson in compromise. “The wife wanted everything to be very romantic, but there are four other people who live there, too,” says Margolis. “I needed to incorporate some of those aspects, but overall, make it feel like a family home.”

The jumping off point for the space was the crystal chandelier. To prevent it from from looking too glam, Margolis opted for smoked glass. “From there, I wanted to balance it out with a more rustic dining table.” The blush velvet dining chairs were sourced from ABC Home, while the striped area rug, which “made the space way more cool,” was found online at Serena & Lily. To amp up the texture in the space, Margolis wrapped it in a grasscloth wallpaper and added a statement-making fringed mirror. “The mirror literally reflects the chandelier,” she points out.







Photo: Amy Bartlam

For the master suite, Margolis took her inspiration from a luxury hotel room in Tulum, Mexico. “If you’ve ever fallen down the Instagram rabbit hole, you probably know what I’m talking about. It’s very organic, very beachy, but luxe.” To offset all the white, she chose dark bedding and wood furniture. “I tried to make the room feel very textured, but overall I wanted it to be simple.”







Photo: Amy Bartlam

In the expansive ensuite bath (Margolis swears it’s much larger than the photo suggests), she warmed up the space with a West Elm settee and an area rug from Anthropologie. “It’s perfect because it has accents of blush, which my client loves, but it’s still pretty neutral.” The bohemian tassel chandelier over the tub was purchased from Lulu & Georgia for less than $200. “It works for the scaling and adds a lot of texture,” adds Margolis.







Photo: Amy Bartlam

All three kids rooms are playful and whimsical, but able to grow with them as they get older. Margolis stumbled across a large-scale floral mural from Anthropologie for the family’s only daughter. “I love it because it has a white background, which takes away from the busyness, but it has all the colors she loves, like pink and purple,” says Margolis.







Photo: Amy Bartlam

The nursery is “neutral and calming,” painted a grey hue with a blue undertone and jazzed up with striped curtains that feature a tassel trim. “It’s a simple space, but one that’s really nice to be in.”







Photo: Amy Bartlam

“The third room is an eight-year-old boy’s room — he wanted a really cool bed,” says Margolis. The Moonrise Kingdom-esque cabin bed fit the bill, and was paired with a blue striped rug for a punch of pattern.

“We really worked hard on every single room of this house,” says Margolis of the project. “I wanted it to reflect my clients. I didn’t want them to feel like, ‘Oh, this designer came in and did what she wanted.’ Every piece is different, everything comes together, and it’s also exactly what they were looking for.”

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