Connect with us

Buzz

These 8 charts tell the story of Canada’s housing market in 2018

Published

on


A whole year of housing data is a lot to sift through, but for the last 12 months Canadian economists have kept busy crunching numbers.

Often, they’ve presented their analysis in the form of easily understandable charts, and Livabl has rounded up eight that, taken together, tell the story of Canada’s housing market in 2018.

1. 2018 is expected to be the worst year for Canadian home sales since 2010







What’s going on here: The Canadian Real Estate Association charts national home sales dating back to 2000.

The takeaway: While sales are only projected to edge down 0.5 percent this year, that’s enough to put them at the lowest level since 2010.

2. These are the top performing Canadian housing markets of 2018







What’s going on here: BMO compares year-to-date sales and prices across nine local Canadian housing markets.

The takeaway: When it comes to home-price gains, Montreal is the runaway winner with prices up 5.5 percent through 11 months.

3. Canadian housing affordability is the worst since 1990 as buyers feel the pinch from the stress test







What’s going on here: In its third-quarter affordability analysis, RBC looked at how much stress testing (as well as price changes, taxes, and utilities) accounted for annual increases to the qualifying income needed to buy a typical home in major markets.

The takeaway: All markets were impacted, but some felt the rule change to a greater extent. Take Saskatoon, for instance — more than half the increase to the minimum qualifying income can be chalked up to the stress test, which more than offset the benefits of lower home prices.

4. Canada’s appetite for mortgage debt doesn’t signal another housing crash







What’s going on here: National Bank shows what share of Canadian households’ disposable is going towards debt servicing, including both capital payments and interest payments.

The takeaway: While Canadian households are using more of their disposable income to pay off debt than they were during the 1990s market crash, these days a much higher share of those payments is going towards building equity rather than interest.

5. These 5 local Canadian housing markets are peaking in late-2018







What’s going on here: National Bank demonstrates how far home prices have fallen in scores of Canadian housing markets — with a few exceptions.

The takeaway: Even though the Canadian market is largely cooling, five cities have never seen higher prices: Kingston, Kitchener, Montreal, St. Catharines, and Windsor.

6. The Canadian housing market slowdown isn’t over yet







What’s going on here: CIBC tracks home sales activity in two of Canada’s biggest housing markets before and after the federal government introduced expanded mortgage stress testing in January via the B20 guidelines.

The takeaway: Vancouver hasn’t seen sales rebound yet. As one of the country’s largest markets, the implications are national and may discourage the Bank of Canada from hiking rates next year as planned.

7. According to this measure, Canada’s housing market is still balanced







What’s going on here: RBC presents CREA’s sales-to-new listings ratio dating back to 2004. Typically, a ratio between 40 to 60 percent suggests a balanced market, with anything above favouring sellers and anything below favouring buyers.

The takeaway: While the ratio has been moving towards sellers’ territory, as of November, it was still balanced at 54.8 percent.

8. Condo and townhome price gains are slowing







What’s going on here: Scotiabank compares how prices for Canadian condo apartments, townhomes and single-family homes have performed this year (and in 2017 and 2016).

The takeaway: The fact that condos and townhomes have been the last affordable options for many homebuyers in Canada’s biggest markets has pushed prices higher as competition for these units has been strong. But with price gains in these segments converging with the low-rise market, it appears they may have run out of steam.



Source link

قالب وردپرس

Buzz

Lower mortgage rates won’t do much for Toronto homebuyers, says economist. Here’s why

Published

on

By








Photo: Dennis Jarvis/Flickr

Those in the market for a Toronto home shouldn’t get too excited about the prospect of lower mortgage rates, says one economist.

This week in a widely reported move RBC revealed it was slashing its five-year mortgage rate, and other lenders are expected to do the same. But Stephen Brown, a senior economist with Capital Economics, suggests it won’t do a whole lot to boost activity in Toronto’s housing market.

“While such cuts may well help markets like Montreal where sales remain pretty strong, it’s hard to see them doing much for Toronto or Vancouver,” he writes in a Canada Economics Weekly report.

“In both cities, speculation has played a far larger role in driving up both sales and prices in recent years. For owner-occupiers to replace such buyers, either mortgage rates or prices will need to fall much further,” Brown continues.

Although Toronto sales fell by 16.1 percent in 2018, according to the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB), Brown is not sure substantial price drops are a foregone conclusion. While sales took a double-digit dip, the average price of a home in the GTA remained relatively stable at $787,300, representing a decline of 4.3 percent.

“Given high transaction costs, absent a severe economic downturn or a sharper rise in interest rates than we envisage, investors may simply decide to hold on to their assets,” Brown states.

Many experts predict the Bank of Canada will continue to gradually increase interest rates this year. But Capital Economics has repeatedly predicted the central bank will need to reverse at least one of the five hikes it has announced since July 2017, in part because of the struggles of the country’s oil industry.

While Capital Economics remains an outlier, some observers are now entertaining the possibility that the central bank will sit on the sidelines for 2019.

Source link

قالب وردپرس

Continue Reading

Buzz

How this coastal-chic Los Angeles home blended high- and low-end decor

Published

on

By







Photo: Amy Bartlam

When designer Genna Margolis of Shapeside was approached by her clients to customize their 6,000-square-foot new-build in Los Angeles’ upscale Brentwood neighborhood, she was immediately struck by the sheer size of the project. “This house is huge and each room is extremely large,” explains Margolis. “One of the biggest challenges was just making sure everything fit to scale.”

The family of five was conscious about spending where it mattered, and saving where they could get away with it. It takes a lot of furniture to fill up a home of this size, and Margolis had to be strategic. “The key to achieving a high-low mix is spending more on the big pieces that take up the majority of the space, and spending less on the trendy accent pieces,” notes Margolis.

The Cape Cod-style residence had a traditional feel (or “stuffy” as Margolis calls it), which clashed with her clients’ contemporary taste. “A lot of the furniture you find in retail stores that’s young and cool is made to fit tiny apartments,” says Margolis. It took quite a bit of trial and error to source pieces that were not only substantial, but stylish.

Design News Alerts

Get the latest Interior Design tips and trends from Livabl sent to your inbox







Photo: Amy Bartlam

The minimalist design of the entryway came at the request of the homeowners. “This family has three young kids, so they didn’t want to have a lot of stuff in the way when they walk through the door,” says Margolis. She paired a concrete and brass console table from West Elm with a custom-made bench to house shoes and bags. The pegs above complement the leather strap detail on the bench, and allow scarves to be looped through.

Margolis chose a leafy indoor tree to occupy an empty corner. “The more furniture there is, the more structured a plant I will choose. If there’s less furniture, I’ll choose something wider and looser.”







Photo: Amy Bartlam

The open-concept living space, which is defined by two fireplaces on either end, presented yet another design challenge. Ultimately, Margolis decided on two separate seating areas — one for everyday relaxation and another for more formal entertaining. “Since the space is so big and open, I decided to custom-make a really large coffee table that took up a lot of space,” she explains. “The coffee table is almost five feet in diameter and we have an 11-foot long sectional in a dark grey linen.”







Photo: Amy Bartlam

The homeowners did not want the grand piano to be the sole focal point of the space — it was an inherited piece, but they feared it would come across as overly formal. “To make it feel more relaxed, I knew I needed to add a chair, but it couldn’t be just any chair,” says Margolis. “This one is upholstered in a blush fabric and has really dainty legs. I wanted it to be modern, but still inviting and chill.” She also flanked the fireplace with two fiddle leaf figs. “Adding organic factors helped to loosen it up. The piano is there, but it feels like it’s more in the background.”







Photo: Amy Bartlam

The dining room was a lesson in compromise. “The wife wanted everything to be very romantic, but there are four other people who live there, too,” says Margolis. “I needed to incorporate some of those aspects, but overall, make it feel like a family home.”

The jumping off point for the space was the crystal chandelier. To prevent it from from looking too glam, Margolis opted for smoked glass. “From there, I wanted to balance it out with a more rustic dining table.” The blush velvet dining chairs were sourced from ABC Home, while the striped area rug, which “made the space way more cool,” was found online at Serena & Lily. To amp up the texture in the space, Margolis wrapped it in a grasscloth wallpaper and added a statement-making fringed mirror. “The mirror literally reflects the chandelier,” she points out.







Photo: Amy Bartlam

For the master suite, Margolis took her inspiration from a luxury hotel room in Tulum, Mexico. “If you’ve ever fallen down the Instagram rabbit hole, you probably know what I’m talking about. It’s very organic, very beachy, but luxe.” To offset all the white, she chose dark bedding and wood furniture. “I tried to make the room feel very textured, but overall I wanted it to be simple.”







Photo: Amy Bartlam

In the expansive ensuite bath (Margolis swears it’s much larger than the photo suggests), she warmed up the space with a West Elm settee and an area rug from Anthropologie. “It’s perfect because it has accents of blush, which my client loves, but it’s still pretty neutral.” The bohemian tassel chandelier over the tub was purchased from Lulu & Georgia for less than $200. “It works for the scaling and adds a lot of texture,” adds Margolis.







Photo: Amy Bartlam

All three kids rooms are playful and whimsical, but able to grow with them as they get older. Margolis stumbled across a large-scale floral mural from Anthropologie for the family’s only daughter. “I love it because it has a white background, which takes away from the busyness, but it has all the colors she loves, like pink and purple,” says Margolis.







Photo: Amy Bartlam

The nursery is “neutral and calming,” painted a grey hue with a blue undertone and jazzed up with striped curtains that feature a tassel trim. “It’s a simple space, but one that’s really nice to be in.”







Photo: Amy Bartlam

“The third room is an eight-year-old boy’s room — he wanted a really cool bed,” says Margolis. The Moonrise Kingdom-esque cabin bed fit the bill, and was paired with a blue striped rug for a punch of pattern.

“We really worked hard on every single room of this house,” says Margolis of the project. “I wanted it to reflect my clients. I didn’t want them to feel like, ‘Oh, this designer came in and did what she wanted.’ Every piece is different, everything comes together, and it’s also exactly what they were looking for.”

Source link

قالب وردپرس

Continue Reading

Buzz

More condo project cancellations may be on the way in Vancouver this year, developer warns

Published

on

By







Photo: Guilhem Vellut/Flickr

The president and CEO of a major developer is warning homebuyers that more proposed condo projects may be cancelled as inexperienced builders struggle in a cooler market that is still finding bottom.

“Last year, we also saw a few smaller projects get into trouble where they were either cancelled, or, in one situation, buyers were asked to pay additional money to ensure completion of their project,” says Neil Chrystal, the top executive at Polygon Homes, at the Urban Development Institute’s recent 2019 forecast event.

“We may see more of this in 2019, as many inexperienced homebuilders struggle to find suitable financing and are faced with significantly higher construction costs,” he continues.

As a result of falling revenues and higher municipal fees, one Vancouver development was cancelled during the approvals process in the past year, according to industry researcher Urban Analytics. Two other projects were pulled from the market but may relaunch.

Housing Market News Alerts

Sign up now for news alerts on the Vancouver housing market

“They haven’t necessarily been cancelled; rather the developers pulled them off the market and are re-evaluating the product and may make some changes prior to bringing them back on the market,” explains Michael Ferreira, managing principal of Urban Analytics, in an email. “So they may modify the unit mix and pricing,” he adds.

Polygon’s Chrystal has some advice for anyone who wants to buy a home in Vancouver this year at a time when condo projects aren’t guaranteed to move forward. He suggests sticking to developments from experienced builders with successful track records.

Despite — or perhaps, because of — the challenges some developers may face, Chrystal suggests 2019 is a good time to purchase a home in Vancouver.

After all, in order to receive financing to actually build a project, developers need to sell a certain number of units before breaking ground. “Builders are introducing incentives and are releasing product at prices well off the peaks of 2018,” says Chrystal.

And despite mortgage rates climbing in the past year, they are still historically low — for now. The Bank of Canada has made it clear that it intends to raise the overnight rate, which influences the lending market, though Chrystal doesn’t anticipate that will happen this year, despite some predictions to the contrary.

Chrystal also highlights job growth and low unemployment in the region. “It is very rare for a housing market to remain depressed when the local economy is doing so well,” he says, suggesting these builder incentives and price reductions won’t last long.

Source link

قالب وردپرس

Continue Reading

Chat

Trending