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3 things to look for as Canada’s big banks reveal quarterly results this week

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It’s the final quarterly earnings season for the big banks in 2018, when Canada’s biggest lenders tip their hands to investors about how much money they’re making and where.

The Bank of Nova Scotia kicked things off with its quarterly results on Tuesday, revealing it had earned $2.27 billion in the three-month period that closed at the end of October. The Royal Bank of Canada followed suit on Wednesday, posting a quarterly profit of $3.25 billion for the same period.

Toronto-Dominion Bank and CIBC’s numbers land this morning, followed by the Bank of Montreal to close out the quintet next Tuesday.

The big banks are considered to be canaries in Canada’s economic coal mine at the best of times, and this go-around is being watched even more closely than usual. Anyone trying to get a handle on which way the winds are blowing for Canada’s economy is well advised to pay attention to what the banks numbers show about three key things.

How much exposure do they have to oil?

After marching higher for much of the year, the oil market has slumped over the past two months, and Canadian oil has been hit harder than any other type of crude. The oil price that gets the most attention is the U.S. benchmark, known as West Texas Intermediate, which has lost one-third of its value since the start of October and is now trading for barely $50 US a barrel.

But far more important to Canada’s economy is the heavy blend of oilsands crude known as Western Canada Select (WCS). It’s down by a whopping 70 per cent since the start of last month, at one point trading hands for under $14 US a barrel — less than what it costs to make it.

“Oil producers highly exposed to Western Canada are at risk of experiencing a material degradation in cash flow,” credit rating agency DBRS Ltd. warned on Wednesday.

That’s bad news for the banks that lend them money, too, which is why the topic of oil exposure was top of mind for some analysts who monitor the banks.

Scotiabank revealed Tuesday it has $14.8 billion in loans to the energy sector, which is only about 2.6 per cent of all the loans on its books. Only about $1.2 billion of that has been loaned to companies exposed to WCS, which is why the bank’s executives were feeling confident about the future.

“We feel very proud of the names that we bank,” Dieter Jentsch, Scotiabank’s group head of global banking and markets, said on a call with analysts. “I’m confident this will withstand a period of unsettlement.”

Royal Bank reported it has a similar amount of loans — $1.3 billion — out to companies whose fortunes are linked to the price of Western Canada Select. While the vast majority of those loans are still considered investment grade, RBC’s chief risk officer Graeme Hepworth noted that much of the plunge in oil prices has only happened in the past few weeks, so the WCS battering won’t have fully shown up in the numbers ending in October. That’s why the bank anticipates some “incremental losses” tied to oil that may turn up in the current quarter, he said on a call with analysts. 

While neither Scotiabank nor RBC were flashing red warning signs with regards to their oil exposure, it should be eye-opening to see what the rest of the banks have to say on the topic.

How much do they have in Canada’s housing market?

Considering their outsized role in the mortgage market, the banks’ cumulative exposure to the Canadian housing market is likely to be gargantuan. But smart investors are paying close attention to whether that huge chunk is getting bigger or smaller. 

New mortgage “stress test” rules implemented at the start of this year, designed to make it harder to get a mortgage, seem to be having their desired effect. Scotiabank says its residential mortgage portfolio only grew by 0.4 per cent during the quarter. That’s a fraction of what it was during the frothy years of 2016 and 2017, and the bank said it expects its loan book will only increase in the mid-single digits next year, too.

While the numbers are slightly higher at RBC, they’re trending in the same direction, as its residential mortgage loan book only grew by 1.4 per cent during the quarter. The bank still has more than $265 billion worth of residential mortgages on its books, but similar to Scotia, “growth is slowing,” said Mario Mendonca, an analyst with TD Bank.

After rising for years, Scotiabank is starting to see much smaller growth in the number of mortgages it gives out every quarter (Joan Dymianiw/CBC)

Even if the golden mortgage goose isn’t laying as many eggs, the Big Five can probably still bank on higher mortgage rates to come for existing customers to squeeze out more profit. But if any of Canada’s other big banks are handing out fewer home loans, that’s something Canadian homeowners will want to keep an eye on.

Are they feeling confident enough to hike dividends?

Dividend cuts are basically unheard of at Canadian banks, as many investors buy and hold the stocks for years, just for the steady income they provide. So management at the banks tend to only ratchet those quarterly stipends higher if they’re confident they’ll be able to maintain the higher payouts.

If recent history is any indication, we might expect some hikes in the near future. Since the start of 2016, none of the big banks that Mendonca tracks has gone more than two consecutive quarters without a modest hike in their dividend. (The exception is TD, which prefers to hike its dividend at the start of a calendar year and keep it there for the next four quarters. If that holds true, expect a bump up soon, but not until the next quarter.)

This quarter, Scotiabank and RBC both kept their dividends where they were — but both were expected to stand pat because they hiked them last time. If the two-quarter trend holds true, BMO will announce a hike next week, since they haven’t hiked in six months.

All in all, Mendonca said “we expect the banks to continue to raise dividends at a healthy pace,” of about eight per cent, on average, this year and next.

If it happens, that’s a good sign for investors that the banks are feeling confident about the future, even as distant storm clouds begin to rumble over Canada’s housing market and the oilpatch.

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Canadian Homeowners: Meet the Costs of Window Replacement Projects

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Various factors could lead you to consider replacing your windows. However, there are multiple factors to think of that would affect the costs of this project. On average, a window replacement project could cost anywhere from $500 to upwards of $2000. The price is significantly affected by factors such as the design, materials used, and how energy efficient you would like your windows to be.

There are various types of windows to choose from. Understandably, the costs to replace your current window would depend on the kind of window you would like to replace it with.

It is essential to keep in mind that although there are different designs when it comes to windows, you need to take into account the functionality as well. Several types of windows may look suitable for your home but are actually not right for what you need.

Unless you are more concerned with the aesthetic of a window, you should understand what the different types of windows are best used for. To properly understand what makes each window type different, you should be familiar with the term sashes.

Simply put, window sashes are the part that holds the window in place. Depending on the type of window you get, the sash may allow for manoeuvrability or may simply be there to keep your window on the wall.

Moving on, there are several types of windows to choose from. This may all look confusing at first, and you may be tempted to select the best looking one, but you have to put into consideration the functionality of the window.

Unless you’re okay with having a poorly ventilated home or one that is continuously cold because of your window, thorough research and consideration should go into the choosing process.

The thing to remember is that you have to take the process one step at a time. You might feel overwhelmed and indeed, being overwhelmed is not something that will benefit you at all.

So what should you do now? The first stride you need to take when considering a window replacement project is to choose the replacement window. There are various types to choose from. However, it would do you good to consider the six most in-demand window styles first.

Double-hung windows are perhaps the most common choice. The benefits extend to it being easily operable and quick to clean. It operates using two sashes. Both sashes are manoeuvrable and provide you with a top or bottom opening at your choosing.

Single-hung windows are slightly different. Although they operate on generally the same principle, the most significant difference is that one of the sashes is stationary and cannot be moved. One of the sashes usually located at the top is fixed and cannot be moved while the bottom sash can be manoeuvred either upward or downward to allow for air. The benefit of a single-hung window is its ability to decrease the chances of air infiltrating your home. This ultimately means that single-hung windows are incredibly energy efficient.

Casement windows are the optimal choice if you’re looking for ventilation. It operates using one sash and is manoeuvrable through a crank that allows you to swing it open in one direction—usually outward. In addition to its superior ventilation properties, you are also able to enjoy a full and unobstructed view of your surroundings.

Slider windows are perfect if you’re looking for something that requires little to no effort to manoeuvre. Due to its aesthetic and design properties, slider windows are great additions if you would like to have plenty of natural light in the room. It operates using two sashes that allow you to manoeuvre it horizontally, mostly sliding the window from side to side.

Bay windows are an ideal design choice if you would like something that not only looks aesthetically pleasing but also allows for excellent ventilation and natural light. Bay windows are certainly aesthetically pleasing. However, they are also perfect for larger rooms where you would like to bring in a certain amount of outdoor life.

Awnings are generally recommended for areas with damp weather. The easiest way to describe it would be to imagine a casement window that has a top opening instead of side openings. This type of window is perfect if you are looking to add a modern and chic feel to your home.

Now that you have selected the type of window you would like to put into your home, it is time to consider what material to use. There are various options ranging from vinyl to aluminum. Understandably, the costs will vary depending on the type of material you choose.

The best thing to do to ensure that you are making the right choice is to contact a professional in window replacement. The right professional will have all the answers to your replacement windows FAQ.

Contacting an expert not only ensures you make the right choices for your home, but it also guarantees that your window will be installed appropriately and as quickly as possible.

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Window repair or replacement is the responsibility of the condo corporation

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If the windows in your condo are hazy, drafty, or have rotting frames, it’s an indicator that they need repairs or outright replacement.

However, under the Condominium Act, it is the responsibility of the condo’s board to carry out such changes as a replaced window is a common element.

“Under the Condominium Act, a declaration may alter the maintenance or repair obligations of unit owners and the corporation but cannot make unit owners responsible for repairs to the common elements,” said Gerry Hyman is a former president of the Canadian Condominium Institute and contributor for the Star.

“A declaration for a high-rise condominium invariably provides that the unit boundary is the interior surface of windows. That means that the entire window — whether it is a single pane or a double pane — is a common element. Necessary repairs or replacement of a broken pane is the obligation of the corporation.”

According to Consumer Reports, selecting an installing windows replacement can be very overwhelming for homeowners. Therefore, if you aren’t covered by your condo’s corporation, it would be necessary to hire professional hands.

Wood, vinyl and composite windows need to be tested on how they can withstand various natural elements. For wind resistance, a window can be very tight when it’s warm but get quite cold too—especially when it begins to leak a lot.

Whatever the case may be, the bottom line remains that replacement windows can save you heating and cooling costs, but it’s best not to expect drastic savings.

Additionally, while getting a new window might help you save on your electric and gas bills, due to their expensive cost, it may take a long time to offset their cost.

Mid-last-year, the government withdraw a $377 million Green Ontario program that provided subsidy on windows to installers and repairers. Window companies had to install energy-efficient windows in order to qualify for the government subsidy that pays for up to $500 of a $1,000 to $1,500 window.

Due to the largely generous subsidies from the government under the Green Ontario program, a lot of window dealers were fully booked for months—even after the program had ended.

“We’re fine with the program ending, we just need more time to satisfy consumers,” said Jason Neal, the executive director of the Siding and Window Dealer Association of Canada, the industry group representing window dealers in a report.

According to Neal, the Progressive Conservatives acted hastily, making massive changes with no prior notice.

“No notification was given to us by anyone,” he said, noting he learned about the change through one of his dealers.

“It’s created a ripple effect.If they had just given us notice we would have pushed that down the line from the manufacturer right into the dealer right down to the consumer.”

Neal noted that he wasn’t particularly sad to see the Green Ontario program end, as it was “the worst rebate program in the history of the window industry.”

“It’s been horrible,” he said. “$500 a window has created such hysteria.”

However, despite the program ending about a year ago, numerous homeowners have been contacting window dealers consistently with concerns that they might not be able to afford replacement windows without the government’s subsidy.

“I understand their concern,” said window dealer Chris George. “I would suggest they reach out to their local representative of the government in their riding and let them know about their concerns.”

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7 Vancouver Real Estate Buying Tips

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The real estate market in Vancouver is turning around for good for everyone looking to purchase a home.

Previously soaring prices are now beginning to ease up, making it a perfect time for buyers—with real estate agents already getting ready for a very busy spring and summer season.

However, before splashing cash on a new property, there are some very important tips you need to know to ensure you make the most of the buyer’s market.

Here are some few expert tips that would guide you when purchasing a home in the sometimes frustration Vancouver seller’s market.

  1. Get adequate financing

It is very important that before you make the move to purchase a property, you put into careful consideration your credit score.

Normally, home buyers with lower scores use the secondary mortgage market to finance their purchase, as they’re more likely to pay a higher interest rate.However, it is advisable to get loan approval long before purchasing the house. This way, you are fully aware of how much you are able to spend—but never be tempted to borrow the maximum amount of money available.

“What’s your mortgage payment that you’re comfortable with? And take into the fact the taxes you’re going to have to pay, if it’s a strata – what the maintenance fees are, if it’s a home what type of maintenance are you going to have to pay in the future?” said Phil Moore, president of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver in a report.

Always be careful of the type of loan you secure and ensure that you can comfortably afford it over a long period of time.

  1. Get a real estate agent

Buying a property without professional help is a very risky move and can be likened to choosing to represent yourself in court without a lawyer. While you might trust your negotiation skills, only realtors are permitted to present offers directly.

Therefore, it is necessary to get a professional real estate agent in the area to represent you. So, screen a few agents and select the best one who has in-depth knowledge of the markets and has a great reputation.

“They’re there to protect you. They’re there to walk you through each step of the process,” Moore said.

  1. Sign up for automated alerts

Most—if not all—realtors have access to the Vancouver real estate board’s database which is updated approximately two days before the public MLS website.

Therefore, you can request from your realtor to sign you up for automatic real-time alerts of all new listings. Doing this gives you an edge as you’re among the very first to know about new properties.

  1. Do a thorough inspection

After receiving an alert for a new listing, it is necessary to push almost immediately for an inspection from your realtor. In this current market, buyers now have time to make an inspection.

Making a quick inspection eliminates any surprises—as there could be major maintenance or repair issues that could spring up. Therefore, you can now table your offer based on the outcome of the inspection, with clauses about claiming your damage deposit back if everything isn’t as was advertised.

Additionally, if you notice that renovations were done, you need to be sure that it was permitted work and carried out appropriately. Failing to do this would ultimately lead to further cost down the line and simultaneously affect the resale value.

  1. Have a back-up plan

There’s always the possibility that everything may not go as smoothly as you’d want. From the inspection being a failureto the property not living up to your expectations—or not being able to agree on the closing date that matches with your needs.

However, a professional real estate agent will definitely help you get past all of these things. If you plan on selling the property as you buy, you can table that and make it part of the deal.

“You’ve got an option, especially in a buyer’s market: you can put in an offer subject to selling your place. So maybe you want to have a place lined up,” Moore added.

Additionally, building contingencies into your buying plan is necessary. Things such as unexpected delays in closing the deal, closing cost and moving costs that could result in added living expenses if that’s your permanent home.

  1. Don’t fall for the buyer frenzy

The Vancouver market buying frenzy that caused a serious climb in the prices a couple of years ago has ended. Thus, it is important not to get caught up in bidding wars with properties that have been deliberately under-priced—with the hope of initiating multiple offers.

“Some of the sellers have been on the market for over a year and they’re eager to sell. So what I’m saying to consumers is: you have a lot of choices, you’re in the driver’s seat, let’s go out and take a look at what’s available,” said Moore.

  1. Never be wary of multiple offers

When purchasing a property, don’t be afraid of multiple offers as you have the same opportunity as anybody else.

Typically, there are just a few offers below the asking price: a couple priced fully, and two or three above the asking price—depending on how close the fair market value is from the asking price.

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