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Ecological collapse of Toronto’s ravine system has begun, researcher says

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A researcher says ecological collapse of Toronto’s vast ravine system has started because of invasive species but one way to save the narrow forested areas would be to form a large public-private partnership.

Eric Davies, a University of Toronto forest ecology PhD student, said native species — plants, mammals, birds, insects — are disappearing from Toronto’s ravines at an alarming rate. The ravines, which make up about 17 per cent of Toronto’s land or more than 11,000 hectares, are becoming silent.

“The collapse has already begun,” Davies told CBC Toronto on Sunday. “It’s in the full throes of a massive decline.”

But Toronto residents could still make a difference in an effort to preserve and nurture the ravines, he said.

In an interview with CBC Radio’s Metro Morning on Friday, Davies said the decline is evident by the detail that is missing, he said.

“You go for a quick walk and it looks green. But you take a closer look and you’ll start to notice that some of the key quintessential forest organisms would be missing, trees and plants and wildlife,” he said. “The clear thing is that there’s lot of Norway maple. It’s taking over the diversity of native trees.”

Toronto’s ravines are sick, according to a study that looks at what’s happened to native plants and trees over a 40-year period. It shows that native species are disappearing at an alarming rate. Why is that happening, and what can we do about it? 8:17

Davies said a “base layer of vegetation” is also missing. For example, it would be hard pressed to find a carpet of Trillium, Ontario’s provincial flower, in ravines in most areas in the spring.

‘The collapse has already begun,’ Eric Davies told CBC Toronto on Sunday about Toronto’s ravine system. ‘It’s in the full throes of a massive decline.’ (CBC)

According to the final report of the Toronto Ravines Study: 1977-2017, released on Friday, Norway maple, an invasive tree species, has increased its tree canopy cover from about 10 per cent in 1970s to about 40 per cent in 2017.

Invasive herbaceous plants, such as Japanese knotweed, garlic mustard and dog-strangling vine, are now found in more than 95 per cent of the forest floor surveyed by researchers.

Invasive species not only take up space, they “toxify” the soil, “out-shade” native species and “out-compete for growth.” creating an environment hostile to native species, Davies said.

‘Important on all fronts’

Davies said Toronto residents should be concerned about the decline of the city’s ravines because they benefit Toronto recreationally, economically and ecologically. 

“In terms of the biodiversity, this is the Mothership, this is where everything is,” he said. “It’s important on all fronts, but the integrity of the system is declining so rapidly it’s kind of threatening those benefits.”

Davies said the city is “trying” to save the ravines, but a large amount of money is needed and Toronto could follow the example of New York City, which has budgeted $385 million over 25 years fin what it calls its Natural Areas Conservancy. The money is being used to fund a science-based program to take an inventory of natural areas, restore and steward them.

According to the final report of the Toronto Ravines Study: 1977-2017, released on Friday, Norway maple, an invasive tree species, has increased its tree canopy cover from about 10 per cent in 1970s to about 40 per cent in 2017. Invasive herbaceous plants, such as Japanese knotweed, garlic mustard and dog-strangling vine, are now found in more than 95 per cent of the forest floor surveyed by researchers. (CBC)

New York City has created a team of scientists who are working closely with the city to promote biodiversity across the city’s five boroughs, he said.

“In a nutshell, it comes down to money. The level of funding that is required is massive,” he said.

For its part, however, the city of Toronto said in a statement this week that it has established a ravine strategy to guide its efforts to protect ravines in the city and it is determined to take steps to nurture the city’s green spaces.

“We want you to know that the city is committed to protecting, maintaining and improving the ecological health and resilience of these natural spaces. The city continues to make investments to manage the multiple pressures facing ravines,” the statement reads.
 
“A healthy natural environment that is stable, resilient and ecologically diverse is the foundation of every action and intention outlined in the ravine strategy.” 

‘Someone has to speak for the trees and the animals,’ says Paul Scrivener, a co-author of the Toronto Ravines Study: 1977-2017. (CBC)

The Toronto Botanical Garden hosted a one-day Urban Ravine Symposium on Friday, attracting about 100 participants, many of whom went on a rainy tour of Wilket Creek Ravine, near Leslie Street, south of Lawrence Avenue East.

Paul Scrivener, a co-author of the report, told people on the tour that the report has begun to track the decline of the ravine system.

“The key finding was there’s been a huge change in Toronto’s ravines that we studied since 1977,” he said.

The report recommends that the city restore the “ecological integrity” of the ravines and develop a plan to get rid of invasive species and replace them with native plants. Seeds of native plants can be grown to propagate the ravines, he said.

“Someone has to speak for the trees and the animals,” Scrivener said. 

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Top 5 Analytics Trends That Are Shaping The Future

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Digital transformation is increasingly becoming the focus for many CIOs around the world today—with analytics playing a fundamental role in driving the future of the digital economy.

While data is important to every business, it is necessary for businesses to have a firm grip on data analytics to allow them transform raw pieces of data into important insights. However, unlike the current trends in business intelligence—which is centred around data visualization—the future of data analytics would encompass a more contextual experience.

“The known data analytics development cycle is described in stages: from descriptive (what happened) to diagnostic (why did it happen), to discovery (what can we learn from it), to predictive (what is likely to happen), and, finally, to prescriptive analytics (what action is the best to take),” said Maurice op het Veld is a partner at KPMG Advisory in a report.

“Another way of looking at this is that data analytics initially “supported” the decision-making process but is now enabling “better” decisions than we can make on our own.”

Here are some of the current trends that arealready shaping the future of data analytics in individuals and businesses.

  1. Growth in mobile devices

With the number of mobile devices expanding to include watches, digital personal assistants, smartphones, smart glasses, in-car displays, to even video gaming systems, the final consumption plays a key role on the level of impact analytics can deliver.

Previously, most information consumers accessed were on a computer with sufficient room to view tables, charts and graphs filled with data, now, most consumers require information delivered in a format well optimized for whatever device they are currently viewing it on.

Therefore, the content must be personalized to fit the features of the user’s device and not just the user alone.

  1. Continuous Analytics

More and more businesses are relying on the Internet of Things (IoT) and their respective streaming data—which in turn shortens the time it takes to capture, analyze and react to the information gathered. Therefore, while analytics programspreviously were termed successful when results were delivered within days or weeks of processing, the future of analytics is bound to drastically reduce this benchmark to hours, minutes, seconds—and even milliseconds.

“All devices will be connected and exchange data within the “Internet of Things” and deliver enormous sets of data. Sensor data like location, weather, health, error messages, machine data, etc. will enable diagnostic and predictive analytics capabilities,” noted Maurice.

“We will be able to predict when machines will break down and plan maintenance repairs before it happens. Not only will this be cheaper, as you do not have to exchange supplies when it is not yet needed, but you can also increase uptime.”

  1. Augmented Data Preparation

During the process of data preparation, machine learning automation will begin to augment data profiling and data quality, enrichment, modelling, cataloguing and metadata development.

Newer techniques would include supervised, unsupervised and reinforcement learning which is bound to enhance the entire data preparation process. In contrast to previous processes—which depended on rule-based approach to data transformation—this current trend would involve advanced machine learning processes that would evolve based on recent data to become more precise at responding to changes in data.

  1. Augmented Data Discovery

Combined with the advancement in data preparation, a lot of these newer algorithms now allow information consumers to visualize and obtain relevant information within the data with more ease. Enhancements such as automatically revealing clusters, links, exceptions, correlation and predictions with pieces of data, eliminate the need for end users to build data models or write algorithms themselves.

This new form of augmented data discovery will lead to an increase in the number of citizen data scientist—which include information users who, with the aid of augmented assistance can now identify and respond to various patterns in data faster and a more distributed model.

  1. AugmentedData Science

It is important to note that the rise of citizen data scientist will not in any way eliminate the need for a data scientist who gathers and analyze data to discover profitable opportunities for the growth of a business. However, as these data scientists give room for citizen data scientists to perform the easier tasks, their overall analysis becomes more challenging and equally valuable to the business.

As time goes by, machine learning would be applied in other areas such as feature and model selection. This would free up some of the tasks performed by data scientist and allow them focus on the most important part of their job, which is to identify specific patterns in the data that can potentially transform business operations and ultimately increase revenue.

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Waterloo drone-maker Aeryon Labs bought by U.S. company for $265M

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Waterloo’s Aeryon Labs has been bought by Oregon-based FLIR Systems Inc. for $256 million, or $200 million US.

The acquisition was announced Monday. 

Dave Kroetsch, co-founder and chief technology officer of Aeryon Labs, says not much will change in the foreseeable future.

“The Waterloo operations of Aeryon Labs will actually continue as they did yesterday with manufacturing, engineering and all the functions staying intact in Waterloo and ultimately, we see growing,” he said.

“The business here is very valuable to FLIR and our ability to sell internationally is a key piece of keeping these components of the business here in Canada.”

Aeroyn Labs builds high-performance drones that are sold to a variety of customers including military, police services and commercial businesses. The drones can provide high-resolution images for surveillance and reconnaissance.

The drones already include cameras and thermal technology from FLIR. Jim Cannon, president and CEO of FLIR Systems, said acquiring Aeryon Labs is part of the company’s strategy to move beyond sensors “to the development of complete solutions that save lives and livelihoods.”

‘A piece of a bigger solution’

Kroetsch said this is a good way for the company to grow into something bigger.

“We see the business evolving in much the direction our business has been headed over the last couple of years. And that’s moving beyond the drone as a product in and of itself as a drone as a piece of a bigger solution,” he said.

For example, FLIR bought a drone company that builds smaller drones that look like little helicopters.

“We can imagine integrating those with our drones, perhaps having ours carry their drones and drop them off,” he said.

FLIR also does border security systems, which Kroetsch says could use the drones to allow border agents to look over a hill where there have been issues.

“We see the opportunity there as something that we never could have done on our own but being involved with and part of a larger company that’s already providing these solutions today gives us access not only to these great applications, but also to some fantastic technologies,” he said.

Aeryon Labs has done a lot of work during emergency disasters, including in Philippines after Typhoon Hagupit in 2014, Ecuador after an earthquake in 2016 and the Fort McMurray wildfire in 2016.

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Inuvik infrastructure may not be ready for climate change, says study

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The Arctic is expected to get warmer and wetter by the end of this century and new research says that could mean trouble for infrastructure in Inuvik.

The study from Global Water Futures looked at how climate change could impact Havipak Creek — which crosses the Dempster Highway in Inuvik, N.W.T. — and it predicts some major water changes.

“They were quite distressing,” John Pomeroy, director of Global Water Futures and the study’s lead author, said of the findings.

Researchers used a climate model and a hydrological model to predict future weather and climate patterns in the region. They also looked at data gathered from 1960 to the present. 

If greenhouse gas emissions continue at their current rate — which Pomeroy said they are on track to do — the study projects the region will be 6.1 C warmer by 2099 and precipitation, particularly rain, will increase by almost 40 per cent.

The study also found that the spring flood will be earlier and twice as large, and the permafrost will thaw an additional 25 centimetres. While the soil is expected to be wetter early in the summer, the study said it will be drier in late summer, meaning a higher risk of wildfires.

John Pomeroy is the director of Global Water Futures. (Erin Collins/CBC)

“The model’s painting kind of a different world than we’re living in right now for the Mackenzie Delta region,” Pomeroy said.

He noted these changes are not only expected for Havipak Creek, but also for “many, many creeks along the northern part of the Dempster [Highway].”

Pomeroy said the deeper permafrost thaw and a bigger spring flood could pose challenges for buildings, roads, culverts and crossings in the area that were designed with the 20th century climate in mind.

He said the projected growth of the snowpack and the spring flood are “of grave concern because that’s what washes out the Dempster [Highway] and damages infrastructure in the area.”

Culverts and bridges may have to be adjusted to allow room for greater stream flows, Pomeroy said. And building foundations that are dependent upon the ground staying frozen will have to be reinforced or redesigned.

Pomeroy said the ultimate solution is for humans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

“This study is the future we’re heading for, but it’s not the future we necessarily have if we can find a way to reduce those gases,” he said.  

“It’d be far smarter to get those emissions under control than to pay the terrible expenses for infrastructure and endangered safety of humans and destroyed ecosystems.”

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